L’Italie et l’Espagne sont au bord de la faillite et des ministres britanniques croient que l’effondrement de l’euro est de plus en plus plausible.
Les diplomates se préparent à aider les Britanniques à l’étranger dans l’éventualité d’un effondrement bancaire et d’émeutes liées à la crise de la dette. Le gouvernement, le Trésor, a d’ailleurs confirmé plus tôt ce mois-ci que la planification d’urgence pour un effondrement est actuellement en cours. Un ministre important a révélé l’ampleur de la préoccupation du gouvernement affirmant que la Grande-Bretagne est en train de planifier la chute de la zone euro et que ce n’est qu’une question de temps!
Le British Foreign & Commonwealth Office a donné des instructions récentes aux ambassades et aux consulats concernant la planification d’urgence, leur demandant de se préparer à des scénarios extrêmes, à des émeutes et à des graves troubles sociaux.
Les diplomates doivent se préparer à aider des dizaines de milliers de citoyens britanniques dans les pays en zone euro, à envisager les conséquences lorsque les gens ne pourront plus accéder à leurs comptes bancaires, à leurs argents.
Les traités de l’Union Européenne, qui ont définient les règles d’adhésion, ne contiennent aucune disposition pour que les membres puissent en sortir. Si les gouvernements de la zone euro n’arrivent plus à acquitter leurs dettes, les banques européennes qui détiennent leurs obligations risquent l’effondrement.
Certains analystes croient que ce genre d’évènement pourrait provoquer l’effondrement global du système, laissant les banques incapables de redonner l’argent aux épargnants et par le fait même, mettre des milliers d’entreprises dépendantes du crédit bancaire à la rue.
Certains économistes estiment que dans le pire des cas, l’effondrement de l’euro produira la réduction du PIB de ses États-membres jusqu’à créer le chômage de plus de la moitié de la population. [les pays n'auront même plus d'argent pour mettre les gens en chômage...]
Source: The Telegraph
Britain's Foreign Office Prepares For Riots In Europe; Sees Euro Collapse "When, Not If"
As every major developed economy hits Bass's Keynesian Endgame, the status quo is set to change dramatically. Nowhere is this climax playing out louder than in Europe and the implicit solution of Germany-uber-alles (while seemingly inevitable though nevertheless lengthy in execution) is likely to not sit well with many of the EMU nations. To wit,
The Telegraphtoday reports that Britain's Foreign Office is advising its overseas embassies to draw up plans to help expats should the collapse of the Euro turn explosive. Almost incredibly, a senior minister has revealed that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is matter of time.
The Telegraph: Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns
Britishembassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privatelywarned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying thatBritain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.
“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,”the minister told the Daily Telegraph.
Recent Foreign and Commonwealth Office instructions to embassies and consulates requestcontingency planning for extreme scenarios including rioting and social unrest.
Greece has seen several outbreaks of civil disorderas its government struggles with its huge debts. British officials think similar scenes cannot be ruled out in other nations if the euro collapses.
Diplomats have also been told to prepare tohelp tens of thousands of British citizensin eurozone countries with the consequences of a financial collapse that would leave them unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash.
Fuelling the fears of financial markets for the euro, reports in Madrid yesterday suggested that the new Popular Party government could seek a bail-out from either the European Union rescue fund or the International Monetary Fund.
There are also growing fears for Italy, whose new government was forced to pay record interest rates on new bonds issued yesterday.
The yield on new six-month loans was 6.5 per cent, nearly double last month’s rate. And the yield on outstanding two-year loans was 7.8 per cent, well above the level considered unsustainable.
Italy’s new government will have to sell more than EURO 30 billion of new bonds by the end of January to refinance its debts. Analysts say there is no guarantee that investors will buy all of those bonds, which could force Italy to default.
The Italian government yesterday said that in talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy,Prime Minister Mario Monti had agreed that an Italian collapse “would inevitably be the end of the euro.”
The EU treaties that created the euro and set its membership rules contain no provision for members to leave, meaning any break-up would be disorderly and potentially chaotic.
If eurozone governments defaulted on their debts, the European banks that hold many of their bonds would risk collapse.
Some analysts say the shock waves of such an event would risk the collapse of the entire financial system, leaving banks unable to return money to retail depositors and destroying companies dependent on bank credit.
The Financial Services Authority this week issued a public warning to British banks to bolster their contingency plans for the break-up of the single currency.
Some economists believe that at worst, the outright collapse of the euro could reduce GDP in its member-states by up to half and trigger mass unemployment.
Analysts at UBS, an investment bank earlier this year warned that the most extremeconsequences of a break-up include risks to basic property rights and the threat of civil disorder.
“When the unemployment consequences are factored in, it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences,” UBS said.
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